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As the rest of the team predicted, it's going to be a crazy year of evolution in the mobile world, especially for consumers. As I watch my parents socialize with their peers about which apps they've downloaded lately, I feel that this quote from last year rings even truer this year: "We are reaching the sweet spot as the penetration of a [mobile] technology reaches [the masses]". It's a sweet time to be in the industry for sure. Here are some specifics I see happening this year:

1. Death of the 'smartphone'
   There was a time when you had to be somebody 'important' to own a smartphone. It was a status symbol aptly named as a phone for 'smarter' people who needed to be more connected than everybody else. Those days are gone. Not only have smartphones warmed up to the masses, but we have more ways to communicate with one another than we ever have. 'Phone calling ' is now only of the many features, and its usage is on a downward trend. In so many ways, it's not just smarter...

As it’s time for predications and reflections I always go back to my previous predictions to see how I made out.  And contrary to the belief of Strand Consulting, they are not the only ones to publish their previous years, so you can see how I made out too! 

Here are the highlights and  links to those predictions:
2011 – Year of APIs, Growth of Discovery, Less BlackBerry, Less Android, More iPhone
2010– a Thibaut/Caroline combo here.  I declared:  More Android, More BlackBerry, Less iPhone, More Innovation/More funding
2009 Tough economic times, Access the new open, Less US centric, yet more fragmentation...
2008  The Rise of Tools, M&A, and ‘Open’
2007  More fragmentation, newbie developers, Usability; and Location, Location, Location.

It was pretty right on for last year, especially the bit about API growth and where I predicated More iPhone, iPhone being the easy choice for developers as  I saw “ developers abandoning BlackBerry and Android and heading back to...

Have you also noticed that 2011 has seen a drastic reduction in the numbers of predictions?

When this time of year is usually full of "Top 10 things that will happen next year in mobile" ... In 2011 pre-dictators (those doing predictions) seem to have disappeared or seem to be more quiet than usual!

What should we read in this?

Optimistic view
2011 has seen mobile finally booming (despite a slow economy) and people usually predicting at this time of the year are too  busy doing! (or resting from a long hard year)

Pessimistic view
2012 looks so muddy that most people do not want to venture in what could be a very very dangerous territory

Even more pessimistic view
The major mobile devices and mobile platforms (Android and Apple) have reached a stage of maturity where the rhythm of innovation inside and outside the platform is slowing down. There is no exciting future for 2012 just consolidation over existing technologies.

Realistic view
This is the end of...

Happy New year from all of us at WIP - Carlo, Harper, Teresa, Thibaut and me - all the best for a stellar 2011! 

We look forward to working with you and meeting you online or around the world at the many events we all attend. 

First up is CES in Las Vegas, starting with the AT&T Developer Summit on Wednesday, January 5.  We are hosting the very cool WIP Connector Lego Challenge - guaranteed fun, good networking and of course prizes!!   Carlo, Teresa and I will be there.   You'll find Thibaut at MIDEM, January 22 - 26th in Cannes for this big industry music show.  There seems to be alot of Contest Deadlines up in January, so be sure to check them out in our Mobile Community Calendar.

If you haven't yet, check out our Predictions - all of them.  Our team of five, plus one from my interview with Ed Schmidt from ATT give you six pieces of sage advice to help you plan for 2011!

- Caroline's:  Growth, Expectations and Upsets
- Harper's: A Look Ahead at 2011
- Teresa's:  App...

As I peer into my crystal ball I see a year of more growth coupled with higher expectations for mobile along with a few upsets along the way.

The Growth

If you didn’t rest over the holidays, don’t expect to relax anytime soon no matter where you fit in the industry.  We will continue to see more devices, more demand for apps, and more demand for developers. 

It was March when we declared 2010 The Year of the Mobile Developer.  Developers were in hot demand and were finally being embraced publically and vocally as a key piece of the mobile ecosystem.   

With that, we will continue to see huge growth in the number of mobile developers entering the scene.  I do think we will see a combination of really newbie/webby developers, given the rise in toolssuch as AppMobi.   As mobile has now become ‘mainstream’ we will also see more traditional software folks entering mobile.  Expect more development tools and enablers (analytics, advertising etc) on the scene too.  Choice...

Over the course of the next year I feel that you have as much of a chance of predicting the stock market as where the mobile industry is going to go. Yes, we all know dual-core smartphones and LTE are on the way but the unknown is how this technology is all going to be used. Here are my best overall predictions (guesses) for the upcoming year.

1)   Android – Apple – Blackberry – Nokia – WP7 (In that order)

2)   As more devices enter the market and faster network speeds are delivered to the consumer, developers who want to get their product to more phones in a more timely fashion will start taking advantage of web apps. 

3)   This last one is a prediction as well as something I hope for. Earlier this year we saw Microsoft embracing the ChevronWP7 unlocking tool by striking a deal with the developers to integrate it into the WP7 OS. With Android and Apple ahead of the pack, the rest of the OSes will need to make some dramatic changes to do their best at...

Blaug : The mobile prediction octopus.

Exclusively with us this year for the usual end of year predictions!

But before I get into it I was bragging last year about providing measurable predictions... let's see the results!!

1) Android saves Google in Europe in the face of increasing legal & regulatory pressures. 

small tick!!!  Definitely a shaping topic this year... as the EU flexes its regulatory muscle but Google' (lawyers) resist well... and Europe (aka EUOS) uses subsidies to fight back with WEBINOS and SYMBEOS

2) Android becomes the de facto standard for enterprise application and devices 

small tick!!!  A hotly debated subject, with a fight of figures... summary is roughly that enterprise Android growth (~30% of new acquisition in 2010)  has outpaced overall Android's already astonishing growth (~18% new handset market share in 2010)

3)The mobile developer / marketing scene reorganizes

small tick!!!  Just because this one is definitely one of the...

It's that time of year when we put our thinking caps on, peer into our crystal balls, and prognosticate on what we think is going to happen over the next 12 months. Over the next several days, the WIP team will share our predictions for 2011, and you can vote on whether or not you agree. Also leave your own predictions and thoughts in the comments!

Now, on to the hard part. I used to live in Las Vegas, if I was any good at this sort of thing, I'd never have left! In any case, here are a few thoughts about what's going to happen in our corner of the mobile industry over the next year.

* Note:  This is a first in our series of 2011 Predictions.  Check back every day next week for others, and on January 1 for a collection of all of them, and to vote for your favorite.

One of my favourite people in the mobile developer ecosystem is Ed Schmidt from AT&T.  Ed is a Director in their Developer Program which is a nice title and all, but doesn’t really speak to the volume of his knowledge of mobile development nor his passion for developers.  I thought it would be fun to interview him and get his predictions for 2011. 

Deeper Apps vs Lighter Apps

As other technologies are evolving around mobile development, Ed sees a trend toward deeper and more capable applications coming in 2011.  Ed’s definition of Deeper Apps is similar to what we at WIP have been calling Mobile Apps 2.0 – a confluence of stronger technology, better tools, and better product/life cycle development.

Ed noted that some of this will come because of ‘the cloud; and the networking based...