2012 Predictions: My shot in the dark
There is too much going on with too many variables in the mobile industry for me to feel really confident about my predictions, but here are my 5 in no particular order.
1) NFC finally takes off
Some quick research shows that the first NFC phone was the Nokia 6131, released back in 2006. Fast-forward 4 years and the first Smartphone with NFC capabilities is the Android Nexus S. The only people so far who have truly taken advantage of it, are Sprint & Citi-Bank customers who can use their phone to pay where ever there are contactless pay stations. In short, not very many people at all.
With around 25 NFC phones released in 2011 and just as many confirmed for 2012, the industry is finally getting behind the idea. This in combination with more contactless payment stations are being installed in stores throughout the world and in society people are even becoming too impatient to scan a QR code.
2) Android will continue to get simple
Apple and WP7 have done a really good job at being intuitive. I can hand an iPhone to someone who is touch screen illiterate and they can figure out how to use it faster then if I hand them an Android device. This, in combination with my experience in talking to average consumers who are not aware of a lot of the main feautures Android has to offer.
Now Android 4.0 is a big step in the right direction, but at this moment it is only officially available on one device. It has simplified the menu, gives better instructions on how to set-up the device for the new user and is beginning to feel a lot more intuitive to those who are not as heavily involved in the tech industry.
As this year progresses, I expect HTC, Samsung & Sony will continue to modify the Android stock ROM to give consumers who are new to touch screens and Smartphones a much easier time.
3) Mobile company’s are a hot item
In 2010, mobile accounted for 34% of all venture capitalist investment, and so far in the first half of 2011, mobile investment is at the largest level with 3 billion invested in 358 financings. The mobile industry is obviously getting bigger, and it only makes sense that more VC’s will be looking to invest in 2012.
4) Who will go up and who will go down
- iOS – If Apple is able to get back on track for their usual June/July release date of the inevitable iPhone 5, they will continue to have their largest year yet.
- Android – Maintain and grow their large percentage of market-share with phones running their platform, but still lag behind in the tablet game.
- WP7 – Marketing game has really stepped up in Europe especially with the launch of Nokia’s Lumia 800. With a larger push in North America it will still be a slow start but I expect it won’t be until Q3-Q4 that they begin to make a larger impact.
- Blackberry – Unless they can have Android apps running on their devices by Q2 (which I don’t believe is very likely) then they are a sunken ship except for some stubborn enterprise users.
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Bada – Their market share will continue to sneak up slowly, but I expect this to be the last year before a slow decline.
5) Samsung comes out with a triangle tablet to avoid further Apple Patents
Apple and Samsung continue to do patent battle in a few select countries around the globe. In this last month Samsung has discovered that Apple has managed to patent all standard shapes from the Rectangle to the Pentagon. Yet somewhere is the launch of the iPhone 4s Apple missed patenting the triangle and Samsung will look to capitalize. For more information on the 3lbs tablet click here.