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As it’s time for predications and reflections I always go back to my previous predictions to see how I made out.  And contrary to the belief of Strand Consulting, they are not the only ones to publish their previous years, so you can see how I made out too! 

Here are the highlights and  links to those predictions:
2011 – Year of APIs, Growth of Discovery, Less BlackBerry, Less Android, More iPhone
2010– a Thibaut/Caroline combo here.  I declared:  More Android, More BlackBerry, Less iPhone, More Innovation/More funding
2009 Tough economic times, Access the new open, Less US centric, yet more fragmentation...
2008  The Rise of Tools, M&A, and ‘Open’
2007  More fragmentation, newbie developers, Usability; and Location, Location, Location.

It was pretty right on for last year, especially the bit about API growth and where I predicated More iPhone, iPhone being the easy choice for developers as  I saw “ developers abandoning BlackBerry and Android and heading back to...

Developers continue to be in hot demand as we enter 2012 with many events eager to cater to them - so many events it is becoming much harder to choose which to attend.  I see operators/carriers doing more and more to attract developers to their SDKs and APIs.  A couple of years ago, only a few were hosting developer events; now all are hosting at least one per year with many additional hackathons, seminars and workshops.

Much more emphasis will be placed on how developers can make money with their applications.  More events with this focus will be forthcoming in 2012 and beyond.  All conferences will include it as one of their conference streams if they are not dedicated the whole conference to it.  Other prominent areas include: Mobile Payments, NFC and Social Media and anything to do with Apps.

Mobile World Congress will continue to attract large numbers of mobile ecosystem members including developers.  GSMA really hit a home run with App Planet at MWC in 2010 and will...

Have you also noticed that 2011 has seen a drastic reduction in the numbers of predictions?

When this time of year is usually full of "Top 10 things that will happen next year in mobile" ... In 2011 pre-dictators (those doing predictions) seem to have disappeared or seem to be more quiet than usual!

What should we read in this?

Optimistic view
2011 has seen mobile finally booming (despite a slow economy) and people usually predicting at this time of the year are too  busy doing! (or resting from a long hard year)

Pessimistic view
2012 looks so muddy that most people do not want to venture in what could be a very very dangerous territory

Even more pessimistic view
The major mobile devices and mobile platforms (Android and Apple) have reached a stage of maturity where the rhythm of innovation inside and outside the platform is slowing down. There is no exciting future for 2012 just consolidation over existing technologies.

Realistic view
This is the end of...

Happy New year from all of us at WIP - Carlo, Harper, Teresa, Thibaut and me - all the best for a stellar 2011! 

We look forward to working with you and meeting you online or around the world at the many events we all attend. 

First up is CES in Las Vegas, starting with the AT&T Developer Summit on Wednesday, January 5.  We are hosting the very cool WIP Connector Lego Challenge - guaranteed fun, good networking and of course prizes!!   Carlo, Teresa and I will be there.   You'll find Thibaut at MIDEM, January 22 - 26th in Cannes for this big industry music show.  There seems to be alot of Contest Deadlines up in January, so be sure to check them out in our Mobile Community Calendar.

If you haven't yet, check out our Predictions - all of them.  Our team of five, plus one from my interview with Ed Schmidt from ATT give you six pieces of sage advice to help you plan for 2011!

- Caroline's:  Growth, Expectations and Upsets
- Harper's: A Look Ahead at 2011
- Teresa's:  App...

As I peer into my crystal ball I see a year of more growth coupled with higher expectations for mobile along with a few upsets along the way.

The Growth

If you didn’t rest over the holidays, don’t expect to relax anytime soon no matter where you fit in the industry.  We will continue to see more devices, more demand for apps, and more demand for developers. 

It was March when we declared 2010 The Year of the Mobile Developer.  Developers were in hot demand and were finally being embraced publically and vocally as a key piece of the mobile ecosystem.   

With that, we will continue to see huge growth in the number of mobile developers entering the scene.  I do think we will see a combination of really newbie/webby developers, given the rise in toolssuch as AppMobi.   As mobile has now become ‘mainstream’ we will also see more traditional software folks entering mobile.  Expect more development tools and enablers (analytics, advertising etc) on the scene too.  Choice...

* Note:  This is a first in our series of 2011 Predictions.  Check back every day next week for others, and on January 1 for a collection of all of them, and to vote for your favorite.

One of my favourite people in the mobile developer ecosystem is Ed Schmidt from AT&T.  Ed is a Director in their Developer Program which is a nice title and all, but doesn’t really speak to the volume of his knowledge of mobile development nor his passion for developers.  I thought it would be fun to interview him and get his predictions for 2011. 

Deeper Apps vs Lighter Apps

As other technologies are evolving around mobile development, Ed sees a trend toward deeper and more capable applications coming in 2011.  Ed’s definition of Deeper Apps is similar to what we at WIP have been calling Mobile Apps 2.0 – a confluence of stronger technology, better tools, and better product/life cycle development.

Ed noted that some of this will come because of ‘the cloud; and the networking based...

GetJar, one of the many app stores we track in the WIP App Store wiki, commissioned a really great report from well-known mobile analyst Chetan Sharma on the state of the mobile app market that’s a must read for anybody involved with mobile apps. It’s a free download, too, so there’s no excuse not to spend a few minutes with it.

Chetan says there were 7 billion apps downloaded in 2009, and he predicts this will boom to 50 billion downloads by 2012, including both paid and free apps. He says apps generated revenues of $4.1 billion from sales, advertising and virtual goods in 2009, and this will jump to $17.5 billion in 2012.

A few other choice bits in the comprehensive, 19-page report:
- More than a third of app downloads came from Asia, more than any other region.
- Paid apps are strongest in North America, with the continent generating more than half the global paid app revenues.
- Furthermore, the average paid app price in North America is $1.09, compared to just under 80 cents in...

This year you are in for a double dose of Predictions for Mobile Developers, as Thibaut and Caroline team up with their views.

Thibaut Rouffineau, based in London,UK is up first:

Predictions tend to be of this Nostradamus type that are not measurable and quantifiable… So let's try to give actual measures and verifiable facts. Even if it means that each of them can be influenced … but isn't it the goal too
So here we go for our 2010 predictions:

• Android saves Google in Europe in the face of increasing legal & regulatory pressures.

Google will start the year with even more trouble on their hands in Europe with an increasing number of issues raised by European governments and regulatory bodies. Android will be at the forefront of their defense, as a proof that they are encouraging competition rather than stifling it. This can only and should be accompanied with a relaxed approach to the way Google and the OHA manage Android throughout 2010.

• Android becomes the de facto standard for...